New Prediction Market Design from Cassandra Accepted to ASPIRE 2025

We’re excited to share that our paper, “A Hybrid Prediction Market Design for Scientific Replication Forecasting,” has been accepted to ASPIRE, the HFES International Annual Meeting, taking place October 13–17 in Chicago.

Gintautas Svedas, a researcher at Cassandra Labs, will present the work on behalf of the team. He co-authored the paper with Arpan Bhattacharya, Andrei Lyskov, Markus Strasser, and Cassandra’s president, Lorenzo Barberis Canonico.

The paper introduces a new kind of prediction market that helps funders and researchers assess the likelihood of scientific findings replicating. By combining multiple automated market maker models, staged payouts, and reputation-based rewards, the design tackles key limitations of current replication markets—like illiquidity and long wait times. It even integrates AI-generated summaries to make the probabilities more accessible.

We believe this work offers a promising tool to triage funding, improve transparency, and align incentives in scientific research. We're honored to contribute it to the ASPIRE community.